The programme includes technical assistance from the World Bank and a monitoring framework agreed with donors. Economists expect inflation to ease into single digits by year end if the exchange rate holds.

Bankers who spoke to Beirut Financial described the mood as cautiously optimistic, with liquidity improving month on month. Much depends on whether the government can hold its coalition together long enough to pass the legislation.

Market reaction

Much depends on whether the government can hold its coalition together long enough to pass the legislation. Economists expect inflation to ease into single digits by year end if the exchange rate holds.

“Capital follows credibility, and credibility is finally being rebuilt.”

Remittances remain the single largest source of hard currency, accounting for roughly a fifth of national income. Investors have been watching the negotiations closely, with yields on the 2030 notes narrowing by 40 basis points this week.

Economists expect inflation to ease into single digits by year end if the exchange rate holds. Regional peers have moved faster, and the gap is becoming harder to ignore, one former adviser said.